Analysis | Knicks offseason outlook: The Eastern Conference is about to be reshuffled, and the starting lineup is an advantage

(The original article was published on June 1, and the author is Bobby Marks, a salary expert on ESPN website. The content of the article does not represent the translator's views)

This year's playoffs are in full swing, and the lottery team's signing has also been determined. Next, we can analyze how each eliminated team should spend the offseason, including the draft, free agent market and trading market. Which teams who were eliminated are only one trade away from the championship? Which teams face major draft and trading choices? How quickly can the teams in the league rebuilding complete the reconstruction? Bobby Marks of ESPN website analyzed potential options for each team, including a look at the team’s roster status, financial status, management priorities, renewals worth paying attention to, team needs, and future draft assets.

New York Knicks

Season record: 51 wins and 31 losses (exit in the East Decision)

Draft picks this June: No. 50 (from the Grizzlies)

Free players: Preschácio, Cameron Payne, Delang Wright, Landry Shamet, Ariel Hookporti (team option), PJ Tucker (team option), Anton Watson (restricted), Kevin McCaller Jr. (restricted), Marjon Beecham (restricted)

Current status of the team lineup:

If the Pacers' defeat in the Eastern Conference Finals last year taught us anything, it is not to overreact and make large-scale adjustments to the roster. The same attitude should also apply to the Knicks' offseason operation direction this year. Although the league will not award consolation prizes for the Eastern Conference third record, at least the second round of the playoffs for three consecutive years, or to reach the division finals for the first time since 1999, the Knicks' season has indeed laid the foundation for future development, not a reason to knock it back.

In a rare interview before the start of the playoffs, Knicks boss James Dolan expressed a similar view. “We’ve been attracted to that glittering champion trophy many times, thinking ‘maybe this is what we need’, especially when things are not going well,” Knicks boss Dolan said on Brunson and Hart’s podcast. “‘It might turn things around,’ sometimes players, sometimes coaches. I’ve come to understand that this doesn’t work, it really doesn’t work. You have to go back to the fundamentals and lay a solid foundation. To build a team, It is necessary to establish a complete system. There is no such thing as suddenly becoming a strong team by swinging the magic wand on the team. There is no such miracle in the real world."

It cannot be ignored that last summer, getting Mikal Bridges from the Nets trade and trading from the Timberwolves to Towns before training camp started, these are the strategic layouts formulated by the Knicks for this season and future championships. Brunson, Towns, Anunobi and Hart all have at least three years of contracts. If Bridges completes a contract renewal this summer, the core lineup will be more stable. Given that the Eastern Conference (especially the Celtics and the Bucks) are about to face a lineup reshuffle, it is particularly important to maintain the integrity of the starting five Tigers.

Of course, the advantage of continuing the starting lineup does not mean that it has reached perfection, and the loss to the Pacers series proves that the depth of the playoff rotation is crucial. According to ESPN's data analysis, the Knicks started averaging 94 points per game this season, the second highest record since the 1986-87 season. This season's starting points per game are second only to the Nuggets, and this data itself is like a double-edged sword.

Offseason financial situation:

The Knicks' total salary as they enter the offseason is US$200 million, and there are 4 places left in the lineup. The Knicks currently exceeds the first tyrant line by $3.8 million, and there is still $8 million left to the second tyrant line. If they choose not to execute PJ Tucker’s team option, they will get $3.5 million in financial buffer space. The Knicks must decide by June 29 whether to execute Tucker and last year's second round pick Hooker Porti's $2 million team option.

If the Knicks use a $5.7 million mini middle class special signing player, it will trigger the second rich line limit. If the salary exceeds the first rich line after the transaction, the team can still trade, but the special case of the transaction shall not exceed 100% of the salary of the player being traded. If the total salary breaks through the second rich line after the transaction, contract packaging transactions are prohibited.

The top priority of management:

Improving the depth of the lineup will become the top priority of the Knicks management, which can be achieved through three ways: internal training, free agent market signing and trading operations. The focus of internal training fell on Dadiye and Kolek, who were selected last year, who played in the regular season for only 400 minutes. With 93% of the team's salary space focused on starting five Tigers and sixth man Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks must be careful in the free agent market. The Knicks need to convince free agents to join the team with a salary cut, take the championship as a common goal, and accept the possible reduced playing time. This season, the Knicks' substitute averages play time in the league is at the bottom of the league. The

trading market has limited advantages for the Knicks unless they consider using one of their starting players. Although the Knicks have a $13 million expiration contract for Mitchell Robinson, management needs to weigh the value of its transaction and the on-the-counter contribution. The center can grab 12.6 rebounds every 36 minutes in the playoffs and will become a full free agent in the offseason next year if the contract is not renewed. The Knicks have only one tradable first-round pick in the next seven years, namely the Wizards' first-round pick protected by the first eight picks in 2026.

Cannual renewal worth paying attention to:

Brunson signed a contract extension in the offseason last year provides the Knicks with financial space, which can not only sign long-term contracts with Bridges, but also maintain operational flexibility in the next few years. After the NBA Finals, Bridges is eligible to negotiate a contract extension of up to four years of $156.1 million. If the starting salary for the new contract is set at US$34 million, it is expected that the Knicks will be below the second richest line in the 2026-27 season by about US$30 million. The Ironman has maintained full attendance for seven years in his career, and his only two seasons have not played 82 games in the 2019-20 season and 2020-21 season. Bridges averaged 37 minutes per game this season, with his shooting percentage reaching 50% for the first time since his Suns. The efficiency improvement comes from his ability to finish at the basket. According to the tracking data of GeniusIQ website, Bridges ranked second in the league in layups and dunks with 73.5% of players who made at least 250 shots.

Downs has three years left in its current contract ($53.1 million, $57.1 million and $61 million respectively) and is eligible to discuss renewals from July 7.

Team requirements:

wing players with 3D attributes on the bench, outside projection ability and frontcourt depth.

Future Draft Assets:

The deal with the Nets in June last year resulted in the Knicks only one tradable first-round pick left in the next seven years, that is, the first-round pick protected by the Wizards in 2026. The Knicks' first round swap rights in 2026, 2030 and 2032 can also be traded, and there are seven second round picks.

Original text: Bobby Marks

Compiled by: Li Taibai